A year ago today, the US stock market made a bottom. On March 9, 2009, the S&P500 closed at 676.5. Yesterday, it was 1138.5. So we have made a 58% comeback. According to a report published by Bespoke Investment Group, the current bull market so far ranks 14th on the all-time list.
At times it is not easy to believe that things have gotten a lot better since last March. That view is perhaps mostly deeply colored by unemployment, which is rampant. But a look at a number of indicators shows real gains. Look at the data "in hand" today versus the same month a year ago:
Consumer Confidence +84%
Retail Sales +5%
Auto Sales +13%
ISM Purchasing Managers Index +61%
Durable Goods Orders +10%
Housing Starts +22%
So: we survived and there has been traction.
Of course, that is not the same thing as saying "everything is great" or that there is somehow no bad news. The housing sector remains in tatters -- foreclosures, unsold inventory, "upside down" mortgages and construction spending all remain areas of concern. Moreover, the mood around everything remains tentative. In short, we could write the "glass is half-empty" narrative without straining.
But for today, on the one-year anniversary of the market making a major bottom, we'll stick with a "glass is half-full" view.
