Economic data from China overnight offers continued suggestion of improved economic health globally. According to published reports, exports from China in February jumped by nearly 46%, easily besting estimates for 35-40% growth. Imports were up too, climbing nearly 45% on a year-over-year basis.
Export performance for January and February was up 34% -- which some say may be a better figure that takes into account activity (or lack of activity) around China's New Year celebrations/shutdowns.
A dispatch by the Associated Press on published by The New York Times offered a couple of comments:
''China's trade is extending its recovery,'' said Zhu Jianfang, an economist for Citic Securities in Beijing. ''Exporters are getting more orders these days.''
February's growth rate was boosted by comparison with last year's weak trade amid the global downturn and came despite the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, when many companies shut down.
Zhu said the data increase chances the government might allow China's currency, the yuan, to rise in value. Beijing has held the yuan steady against the dollar for 18 months to help Chinese exporters but is under pressure from Washington and other trading partners that say it is undervalued and is swelling China's trade surplus.
In a reflection of stronger global trade, China's total Fe bruary imports and exports were up 45.2 percent from the same month last year. China overtook Germany in 2009 as the world's top exporter.
Chinese economic growth accelerated to 10.9 percent in the final quarter of 2009 on the strength of massive stimulus spending and bank loans. That drove demand for imported iron ore and other materials used in stimulus-financed construction projects.
''Stronger domestic demand led to the good performance of imports,'' said Liu Qiyuan, an economist for China Merchant Securities. ''We can see the domestic economic is on track for recovery.''
Equity markets in China have been on a bit of a comeback since fading earlier in the year. The benchmark Shanghai Index is up 4% since early February. But as the chart below shows, the market appears to be at an interesting "decision point" -- trapped in a narrowing gap between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.
