Blimling and Associates Blog

According to the USDA/NASS Cold Storage Report, published at 2:00pm CT today:

October 31 AMERICAN-TYPE CHEESE stocks @ 579.6 million pounds, up 7.3% year-over-year and down 2.8% versus September 2009 (that compares to an average September-to-October decrease of 3.4% over the previous five years).

October 31  TOTAL CHEESE stocks @ 968.4 million pounds, up 16.8% year-over-year and down 1.6% versus September 2009 (that compares to an average September-to-October decrease of 2.4% over the previous five years).

October 31  BUTTER stocks @ 195.1 million pounds, up 30.6% year-over-year and down 14.4% versus September 2009 (that compares to an average September-to-October decrease of 19.2% over the previous five years).

For insight into what this might mean for the dairy markets, request a free trial subscription to the Dairy Research Service.

Block cheddar cheese closed at $1.6000/lb, up $0.0175/lb with one trade.

Barrel cheese closed at $1.5000/lb, up $0.0575/lb with three trades.

Butter closed at $1.5250/lb, unchanged with two trades.

Grade A NDM closed at $1.4000/lb, unchanged with one trade.

Extra Grade NDM closed at $1.4000/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Dairy Product Decision Looms

Cadbury Union to Meet with Kraft

National Foods and Senators Clash at Milk Price Inquiry

Saputo, Kraft to Appeal Cheese Ruling

Fonterra Exits British Butter Market

Schumer Urges USDA to Expedite Payments to Dairy Farmers

Strong Australian Dollar Hurting Dairy Farmers

Dairy cow slaughter for the week ending November 7 was 52,746 head, up 1.0% from the same week last year.

This puts slaughter up 243,000 head year-over-year, YTD through week 45.

Block cheddar cheese closed at $1.5825/lb, unchanged with 6 trades.

Barrel cheese closed at $1.4425/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Butter closed at $1.5250/lb, unchanged with 4 trades.

Grade A NDM closed at $1.4000/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Extra Grade NDM closed at $1.4000/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Hershey, Ferrero to Rival Kraft's Bid for Cadbury

Dairy Policy Changes Years Away

Nestle to Buy Brazilian Dairy Plant

According to the USDA/NASS Milk Production Report, released at 2:00pm CT today:

October 50-state MILK PRODUCTION @ 15.440 billion pounds, down 1.1% versus October 2008 levels. 

October 23-state MILK PRODUCTION @ 14.313 billion pounds, down 1.1% versus October 2008 levels. 

October 50-state COWS @ 9,098,000 head, down 226,000 head over October 2008 levels and down 24,000 head from the September 2009 estimate (the September estimate was revised down 4,000 head, making for a 28,000 head report-to-report change)

October 23-state COWS @ 8,316,000 head, down 196,000 head over October 2008 levels and down 22,000 head from the September 2009 estimate (the August estimate was revised down 4,000 head, making for a 26,000 head report-to-report change)

For more information on what this means to prices, request a free trial subscription to our Dairy Research Service.

Block cheddar cheese closed at $1.5825/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Barrel cheese closed at $1.4425/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Butter closed at $1.5250/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Grade A NDM closed at $1.4000/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Extra Grade NDM closed at $1.4000/lb, unchanged with no trades.

Producers Seek Solutions to Low Milk Price

Fonterra Shareholders Approve Capital Restructure

Farmers Must Benefit from Processor Profits

Bidding War for Cadbury Looms

NY Dairy Leaders Weigh in on Federal Probe

Glanbia Sounds Note of Caution Over Dairy Revival

CWT Has Helped Dairy Farmers Financially in '09 

Nearly every day a look at the news wires produces stories about newfound consumer conservatism. Today is no exception, with a story in USA Today under the headline "More Holiday Shoppers May Go Cash Only, No Credit Cards." That portends less spending:

A shift away from credit cards could make what is expected to be a difficult holiday season even more challenging for retailers. Store clerks have long found that it's easier to persuade people who are using credit cards instead of cash to spend more than they were intending, says NRF spokeswoman Ellen Davis. Not only that, but when consumers use credit cards to shop, "they're more likely to buy in the first place," says James Roberts, professor of marketing at Baylor University in Waco, Texas. Consumers are more frugal when they use cash, because they're acutely aware of how much money they're pulling out of their wallets, says Sue Fogel, chairwoman of marketing at DePaul University in Chicago. With credit cards, she says, "it doesn't seem quite as real." Some research has suggested that simply putting a credit card logo in a consumer's peripheral vision will cause the individual to spend more, Fogel says.

Are consumers going to spend less this holiday season? The jury is still out. A recently published survey by the Deloitte consulting firm indicated that consumers are planning on buying fewer gifts -- an average of 18.2 compared to 21.5 in 2008 and 23.1 in 2009. But respondents indicated that they plan to spend more this year on socializing, entertaining and holiday home furnishings. According to the survey, average total spending will be at about $1,145, which would be up 16% from a year ago.